355
FXUS64 KMRX 150206
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
CURRENTLY THIS EVENING, THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA WITH THE REGION EXPERIENCING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING IN EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA WITH ANOTHER LINE DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE IS
OVERALL LESS DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION THAN EXPECTED WITH
ANYTHING STILL FAR FROM OUR AREA. AS SUCH, THIS HAS PRESENTED A
LATER TIMING OF POPS, IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND A DECREASE IN DEW POINTS. THIS ALSO DECREASES THE OVERALL
SEVERE CHANCES AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SHOW EVEN 100
J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THE TIME CONVECTION ARRIVES. IT IS STILL NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION, BUT THE THREAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LOWER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BREEZY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY.
2. LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, COULD BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
SHORT TERM
CURRENTLY A RAPID WARMUP IS ONGOING TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE 70'S AND LOOKING TO CROSS THE 80 DEGREE THRESHOLD
BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER. WE HAVE AN INCOMING FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY MAKING IT'S WAY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND IN RESPONSE WINDS
HAVE RAMPED UP ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE BREEZY
WINDS IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 MPH ARE BRINGING
VERY WARM AIR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF
TODAY AND EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHTENED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE INCOMING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND
WORKING IT'S WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS IT WEAKENS WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE OVER AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. RIGHT
AS THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESEE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
BUT IT WILL BE QUICKLY ERODING WITH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING. IF THE FRONT MOVES IN A BIT FASTER THEN THERE WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO, BUT IF IT HOLDS OFF EVEN JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VA THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAINTAIN STRENGTH OUT OF
KENTUCKY WILL BE WINDS UP TO 60MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1" IN SIZE.
BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WINDS LIKELY GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH, BUT THIS TIME OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LONG TERM PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS LIKE TO BE THIS WEEKEND.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
3. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST. A FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE IN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BUT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION:
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY ENDING
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THE FIRST TWO
NIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE COOLER BENEATH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. WINDS WILL STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH FROST. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WEDNESDAY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
AND WINDS WILL STAY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS DIE
DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIRD THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE.
SATURDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND A
FRONT TO THE NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL HAVE A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BACK TOWARD TEXAS. THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH MAY AFFECT ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. SO THE LAST THREE
DAYS OF THE FORECAST ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE RIDGE MAY EVEN BUILD
NORTHWARD AGAIN SUNDAY. SUNDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA MAY
PUSH THE FRONT BACK NORTH AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS
SOUTH AND CROSSES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY. SINCE WE
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LAST THREE DAYS TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING THE
APPROACHING STORMS TO OUR NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE STORMS
WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY AT CHA AND TYS. AT THESE TWO SITES, IT IS LIKELY THERE
WILL BE ALMOST NO LIGHTNING LEFT. STILL, BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL OF THE SITES WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE
BEING AT TRI. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY SUNRISE
WITH A BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 64 40 66 / 50 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 52 64 40 66 / 50 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 60 39 61 / 80 20 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page