195
FXUS64 KMRX 150749
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
349 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
2. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION:
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND BACK INTO MIDDLE TN, JUST AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. WHILE STORMS ARE LARGELY ELEVATED, SOME GUSTS
HAVE MADE IT TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING, INDICATING THAT AT LEAST
AT TIMES SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS SURFACE BASED. ABINGDON HAD A
GUST TO 48 MPH AT 300 AM EDT THIS MORNING. OVERALL, SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY NOT ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT. BUT SOME GUSTS OF 30-45MPH COULD OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY
7-8AM OR THEREABOUTS. GUIDANCE IS STILL INSISTENT ON RAINFALL
PICKING UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE TN MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN, YET RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST OR OCCUR, WITH MIXING
EXTENDING UP TO NEAR 700MB THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS COMBINED WITH THIS DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WE WILL
LIKELY FLIRT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME, WITH GUSTS OF
30-40MPH EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BUT
ESPECIALLY THE GENERAL TRI CITIES REGION. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY
UNTIL THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY FALL OFF AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY AND COOL MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY LATE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU AS WE REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE WED
AND THU, HOWEVER WE MAY GET CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CHANCES ARE LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS, BUT SOME GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT RAINFALL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THU SO IT'S WORTH MENTIONING. OTHERWISE, UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD
THU THROUGH SAT AS A TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST AND A SURFACE FRONT
STALLS OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES
BOTH FRI AND SAT SO THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA STAYS DRY. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE AREAS NEAR THE
TN/KY/VA BORDER REGION WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THERE SEEM
WARRANTED, BUT HONESTLY I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THOSE TREND
DOWNWARD IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES GIVEN THE PATTERN. ONE THING
THAT DOES SEEM CERTAIN IS THAT WE'LL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NBM GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES UP ACROSS THE BOARD BY MONDAY AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EJECTS THAT
WESTERN LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT INTO MON, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE UPTREND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS IS HIGHEST AT
KTRI, BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE DECENT ENOUGH AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION AT BOTH KTRI
AND KTYS. EXPECT LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR CATEGORIES DUE TO CONVECTION BEING AT KTRI. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS GOING TO BE THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT
EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KTRI WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE
STRONGER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 43 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 40 66 42 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 40 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 39 61 36 / 20 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...CD
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