237  
FXUS64 KMRX 151841  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
241 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. BREEZY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY.  
 
2. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LEAD TO  
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE  
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.  
   
SHORT TERM  
 
CURRENTLY VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AS  
DEEP MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OCCURRING UNDER THE CLEAR AND SUNNY  
SKIES. THIS IS ALLOWING THE STRONG WINDS OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL JETS  
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HOVERING IN THE 10-  
20 MPH RANGE, BUT GUSTS ARE CAUSING WINDS TO JUMP UP AN EXTRA 10-20  
MPH ABOVE THAT. THESE STRONG WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO  
NORTHWEST ARE ALSO BRINING IN LOWER DEW POINT VALUES AND IN RESPONSE  
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REALLY  
DROPPED QUICKLY. MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 RECEIVED AT  
LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE  
40 REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LACK OF RAINFALL WE'VE ISSUED A FIRE  
DANGER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH  
CAROLINA UNTIL 00Z WHEN THE JET EXITS THE REGION AND THE STRONGEST  
WINDS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.  
 
OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST  
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHICH COULD STILL SEE SOME  
ELEVATED GUSTS AS THE JET SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. UNDER THE CLEAR  
SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE  
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW, AND  
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TICK BACK UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TN  
AND SOUTHWEST VA, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WHAT  
WE'RE EXPERIENCING TODAY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025  
   
LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. DRY LATE THIS WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
2. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST.  
 
3. POTENTIAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES TROUGHING  
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
U.S. ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEAR SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN  
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO PATCHY FROST, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED  
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND  
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING ON  
THURSDAY. HEIGHTS INCREASE AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND A  
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR OUR EXPECTED WEATHER THIS  
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY UPPER  
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A SURFACE FRONT LOCATED NEAR  
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY, AND HOW FAR  
EASTWARD, THIS FRONT WILL MOVE. MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF THIS  
TROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY  
MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT,  
THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY; HOWEVER, HIGHER PROBABILITIES EXIST TO OUR WEST, AND  
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES REMAIN SLIGHT  
CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF  
THIS UNCERTAINTY. WE'LL LIKELY BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH  
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
IF THIS COLD FRONT DOES NOT STALL OUT AND MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA,  
WE'D LIKELY SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF FROST  
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT UNCERTAINTY  
IS HIGH, AND IT'S NOT CERTAIN THE COLD FRONT EVER MAKES IT THROUGH  
OUR AREA IF RIDGING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025  
 
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE REST OF  
THE DAY. BASELINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO A 10 KNOT  
SPEED, BUT GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SLACK OFF ONCE THE SUN SETS AS  
THE JET LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO  
RAMP BACK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NOT NEARLY AS GUSTY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 70 44 76 / 0 0 0 0  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 66 42 71 / 0 0 0 0  
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 61 36 70 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM....JB  
AVIATION...  
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