302
FXUS64 KMRX 161426
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1026 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BUT STILL LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMITIY VALUES. STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS LOWER
PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS CONTRASTS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. WIND GUSTS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 MPH EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SOME LATER IN THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STILL SHOULD DROP
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LOW AFTERNOON RH EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
2. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERALL.
DISCUSSION:
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH IN THE NORTHERN AREAS TO PRODUCE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH TODAY, BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES ON,
WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, AND
MIXING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DEEP. AS SUCH, EXPECT
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MIXED IN SOME HRRR AND NBM 5TH PERCENTILE TO GET THE DEWPOINTS
AND RH VALUES DOWN INTO THOSE RANGES, BUT HONESTLY IT MIGHT NOT BE
LOW ENOUGH. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SAW SOME RH VALUES IN THE TEENS, AND
WHILE THE HRRR IS OFTEN TIMES TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HOW MUCH IT MIXES
OUT THE LOW LEVELS, IT MAY BE MORE CORRECT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE.
THAT'S ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN WE'LL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE MOMENT. THE
OVERLAP OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A SOAKING RAIN IN THE LAST 48
HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH, WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT COORDINATE WITH PARTNERS ON WHETHER ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
ARE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MILD AND CLOUDY ON THURSDAY, WARM FRIDAY AND ONWARDS.
2. POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, TIMING
UNCERTAIN ALONG WITH EXACT IMPACTS, BUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
3. LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION:
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY ON
THURSDAY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPARK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS. NOT
CONFIDENT ANY OF THAT REACHES THE GROUND BETWEEN THE COMBINATION OF
BRIEF COVERAGE, WEAK FORCING, AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TURNING ANYTHING
THAT FALLS INTO LIKELY VIRGA, BUT INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME
SPRINKLES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY
SATURDAY AND PLAYS A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN MAINTAINING A PLEASANTLY
WARM REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARDS INTO
NEXT WEEK. NBM KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ON A SW TO NE TANGENT
ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA OVER
THE WEEKEND. IF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ANY CLUE, WE MIGHT BE
DRIER THAN THAT AREA WIDE, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OFF FURTHER WEST, AT
LEAST UNTIL SOMETIME LATER ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THIS SHOULD HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NOT CERTAIN THIS FRONT WILL
BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH OR JUST WASH OUT ENTIRELY LEAVING A WARMER
PATTERN IN PLACE. BEYOND MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS LIKELY
TO FLATTEN OUT, AS DEPICTED BY BOTH ENSEMBLE MEANS. DON'T SEE A
REASON AT THIS TIME TO DIVERGE FROM THE NBM'S DEPICTION OF LOW
CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KTRI WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 42 70 51 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 41 70 50 / 0 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 37 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....WELLINGTON
AVIATION...CD
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