916
FXUS64 KMRX 180809
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARMER TODAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY
WINDS BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE RISKS.
2. GUSTY WINDS IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TRANSLATING EASTWARDS OVERHEAD TODAY ON ITS
WAY TO A VACATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. LOWER DOWN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING A RETURN TO
THE WARM WEATHER TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL HELP BRING BREEZY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
FAIRLY PAR FOR THE COURSE FOR AFTERNOON MIXING. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE 20'S, THE HRRR HAS A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR
THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE EAST TN/NC MOUNTAINS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
20%. THE STRONG GREEN-UP UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WILL HELP
TO COUNTER-BALANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH WE WILL QUICKLY
DRY OUT ANY DEAD VEGETATION LAYING AROUND. CHECKING TENNESSEE'S
RECENT WILDFIRE HISTORY REVEALS THERE'S BEEN A HANDFUL OF SMALL
WILDFIRES THIS WEEK ACROSS THE AREA, CONDITIONS TOMORROW ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE.
TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THANKS TO THE WARMER AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE, WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE SMOKIES WILL BE NEAR
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WITH ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING AFTER
SUNSET. DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY AND VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND.
2. WEAKENING FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY.
3. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH A
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION:
WE START THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
APPROACHED, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN THE CURRENT RECORDS ARE A BIT
LOWER.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)
04-20 89(2002) 87(2002) 85(2023) 88(2002)
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY, WITH
THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA FLATTENING OUT IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEFS MEAN SBCAPE VALUES FOR MONDAY ARE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG, AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LIMITED
CAPE AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE GFS DOES HAVE EBSHEAR VALUES OF
APPROACHING 40KTS. RIGHT NOW THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW, BUT
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SOME DRYING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES KEEP LOW POPS IN THE NBM FOR SHOWERS AND THUS THE
FORECAST WILL NOT BE DRY FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID WEEK.
ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WEDNESDAY, THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
INDICATED FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
TUESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL, THEN IT WILL BE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, FLOW
WILL BE UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 20
KNOTS AT KCHA, MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KTYS AND KTRI. A PEAK
GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE
AS THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION RETURNS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 55 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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