694
FXUS64 KMRX 051712
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
112 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH HEADING INTO THE
OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THE NORTHERN AREAS SEEM PRETTY WELL HANDLED
BY CURRENT POPS/WX FORECAST BUT WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND HOLD ONTO POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS LONGER WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF NOTE WILL BE TO BEEF UP CLOUD
COVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. COOL AGAIN TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY
CONCENTRATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER LOW WILL STAY PIVOTING IN PLACE TODAY, TONIGHT IT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. ATMOSPHERIC SETUP THEREFORE IS VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THE FORCING AVAILABLE. SOUNDINGS TODAY ACTUALLY LOOK A
LITTLE BETTER IN STRUCTURE, BUT HREF MEAN SBCAPE IS WORSE. WOULD
EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER PRIMARILY SHOWER TYPE DAY, BUT WITH LOW
FREEZING LEVELS ALOFT, WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE IF ADDITIONAL PEA
SIZED HAIL IS OBSERVED, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TODAY OR TONIGHT, WE'LL TAKE THE BREAK FOR
EARLY MAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH JUST MINOR
DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
2. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
3. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
WE WILL FIND OURSELVES PINCHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY BESIDE A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TUESDAY. VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR A LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST.
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MEANDER EAST
WEDNESDAY. H3 JET NEAR 100KTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL PROMOTE
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX REGION, WITH A
WARM FRONT SPANNING EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. A RETURN OF SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS A
RESULT.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
BEHIND THE NORTHEASTERN LOW WED. POPS ARE MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE
WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PER GFS SOUNDINGS, THUS, NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. THUNDER MAY BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.
RAIN CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW AND UPR TROUGH
LIFT UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS OCCURS SO NBM DOES LINGER SLIGHT CHANCES POPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD THROUGH EXTENDED WITH JUST SOME MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OR SLIGHT RISES/FALLS IN
UPPER HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY TRI EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH AT TYS AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI TO START. OTHERWISE, WILL HAVE A VFR
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG AND/OR SOME LOWER CIGS BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT
TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 76 55 68 / 10 0 20 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 72 51 71 / 10 10 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 73 50 71 / 0 10 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 68 46 73 / 20 10 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WELLINGTON
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...
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