222
FXUS64 KMRX 051817
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
217 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NORTH/EAST EARLY TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH.
2. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SW VA TUESDAY, BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER KY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER OUR AREA
AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST DRAWS CLOSER. DRYING WILL WORK IN
AS THE UPPER LOW RETREATS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST EARLY TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH, AND WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY, NEARLY ALL
OF OUR AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE DAY. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE TUESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS COMING CLOSEST TO
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
2. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
3. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION:
AN UNSETTLED AND MESSY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S.
IT LOOKS AS IF THOUGH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WILL BE DRIER ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. THIS IS DUE TO THE
LOCATION IN WHICH THE OMEGA BLOCK IS SETTING UP. THE POSITIONING OF
THE BLOCK SHOULD SUPPRESS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOSTLY TO OUR
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY, WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST, BUT
NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH THAT'S IN PLACE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND THROUGH OUR
AREA, RESULTING IN INCREASING POPS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WHEN IT EXACTLY CLEARS THE AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE
GFS MAKES A CLEAN SWEEP OF THE FRONT BY FRIDAY, KEEPING US DRY. THE
ECMWF HOLDS UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, LEAVING POPS IN
PLACE. WILL LEAVE NBM CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW FOR FRIDAY DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY.
THEN, THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY TRI EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH AT TYS AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI TO START. OTHERWISE, WILL HAVE A VFR
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG AND/OR SOME LOWER CIGS BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT
TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 76 55 68 / 10 0 30 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 72 51 70 / 10 10 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 72 49 71 / 0 10 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 68 46 73 / 20 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
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