396
FXUS64 KMRX 060715
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
1. SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.
TODAY
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS IN PLACE
WITH A CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED
CLEARING THIS MORNING, MAKING THE CASE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS
ALSO HAS ALLOWED FOR A COOL AND DRY MORNING. SIMILAR TRENDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE INCREASED CLEARING AND SOME HEIGHT RISES WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING ABOVE WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT
TONIGHT, THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH INCREASING RIDGING
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LOWS MOVING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING FOR
MOISTURE RETURN FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN TWO JET
STREAKS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PRESENT OVER THE AREA, PROMOTING
MORE BROAD LIFT. RESULTING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED INTO
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT RISES WILL ALSO WARM TEMPERATURES
FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH MOST DAYS.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN OMEGA BLOCKING TYPE OF PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ANOTHER OVER NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS INITIAL SETUP, THE REGION WILL
BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LOWS WITH WEAK RIDGING KEEPING BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, BETTER POPS WILL BE
FOCUSED IN THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY, THE CLOSED LOW
TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN BUT ALSO HEAD TOWARDS OUR REGION WITH AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PRESENT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN COMPARISON TO WEDNESDAY.
WITH BETTER HEATING, INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND SUGGEST
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BY FRIDAY, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
SHIFT RAIN CHANCES BACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY. MOST SOURCES
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN A SIMILAR STRENGTH (NEAR
5,700M AT 500MB) AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THERE ARE ALSO VARYING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AREA. IN ANY CASE, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THIS CLOSED
LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THIS IS CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY AT TRI WHERE
MVFR TO IFR WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF. THERE IS STILL LIMITED
CONFIDENCE ON IF FOG WILL OCCUR OR FOR HOW LONG, MEANING TRENDS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, ANY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 57 69 59 / 0 30 60 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 52 70 57 / 0 10 30 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 51 72 56 / 0 10 30 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 47 73 53 / 0 0 20 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page