849
FXUS64 KMRX 091423
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS LIKELY MADE IT THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS ARE FALLING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR ZERO TODAY. I LOWERED WHAT LITTLE POPS WERE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
1. OTHER THAN LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER.
TODAY
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH FURTHER REDUCTION IN MOISTURE, THIS WILL LIMIT
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY, OUTSIDE OF MAYBE THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ULTIMATELY, THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT
OVERNIGHT, THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. BY THIS TIME, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH WITH RECENT CAA AND
DRIER AIR PROMOTING NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, LIKELY
REACHING INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
2. NEXT WEEK, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ANOTHER DEEPENING CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
HAVE ALSO MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH, BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MILD CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH, BUT MOST PLACES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. ON SUNDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES SPREADING FURTHER NORTH. STILL, THESE
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN FURTHER HEADING INTO MONDAY, BEFORE IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER MOISTURE ADVECTION, ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. DURING THIS TIME, RAIN CHANCES ARE A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD,
GIVEN THE PATTERN. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE LIMITED AND
INHIBIT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY TUESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SIMILAR
TO MONDAY. ALSO, THE FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS DO LOOK TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION, BUT THE PATTERN WILL NOT
PROMOTE MUCH ORGANIZATION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WILL
LEAD TO THE START OF A WARMING TREND WITH THE REGION SEEING MORE OF
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
MORNING FOG HAS BOTTOMED OUT AVIATION CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER, BUT MINIMAL CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 55 72 56 / 0 10 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 50 72 55 / 10 0 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 75 50 73 54 / 0 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 42 73 51 / 20 0 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...BW
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