511
FXUS64 KMRX 100506 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
106 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERALL, SO JUST A
FEW TWEAKS MAINLY TO TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS, AND SKY TO LINE UP
A LITTLE BETTER WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
2. RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT AND
FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE LIKE IT WAS THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S FOR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FROM GENERALLY KNOXVILLE SOUTHWARD AS
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO CREEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SITS OVER
LA/MS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE AL/MS COAST WITH A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN AL/GA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN
MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE
SURFACE. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF I-40. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ACTIVE AND FREQUENTLY RAINY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US. AN UPPER LOW FORMS
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN CUTS OFF AND
GETS STUCK SOUTH OF A WESTERN RIDGE THAT SHIFTS EAST TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ANOTHER TROUGH/UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW WHICH SHOULD
DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE LOUISIANA LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY, BUT THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL MAY NOT CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK.
WHILE SATURDAY EVENING OR EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD REMAIN
DRY, SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY WET. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THEN SHIFTS NORTH TO THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EJECTING NORTH AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. I'M QUITE SURE THERE WILL
BE DRY PERIODS IN THERE, BUT THE HEAVY HANDED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES MOST ALL GUIDANCE HAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST. FOR INSTANCES, INCREASING SOUTHEAST H85 FLOW SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON WOULD PROMOTE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AND
DOWNSLOPE DRYING, BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
IN ANY PLACE...I'M JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND EJECTS NORTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. IF THAT
TIMING HOLDS UP, THEN RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO FINISH
OUT NEXT WEEK AND IT COULD GET FAIRLY WARM, WITH CURRENT NBM
GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S BY WEEK'S
END. TIMING ON THESE BLOCKING PATTERNS IS OFTENTIMES POORLY HANDLED
THOUGH , SO TIME WILL TELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. IN THE
AFTERNOON, LOWER CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS WILL SPREAD INTO CHA, WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS, MVFR CIGS MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 57 74 61 / 60 70 50 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 55 77 60 / 10 60 40 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 55 77 59 / 10 60 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 51 73 56 / 0 40 40 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...DGS
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