019
FXUS64 KMRX 101734
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY AND MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF GA/AL BUT ARE
MOVING AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN TN/NC
STATE LINES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE IT FINALLY MAKES A
BETTER SURGE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA WITH THE RAINFALL, AND NO LIGHTNING
IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. NO MORE EARTHQUAKES ARE EXPECTED, SO HAVE
REMOVED THOSE FROM THE FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE :)
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
1. SHOWERS BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
A MIDLEVEL COL WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY,
WITH A NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO KY TONIGHT. OUR POSITION IN THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE COL WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OF
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN AREAS, WHERE
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HAVE GREATER EFFECT AS THE
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE INITIALLY
DRY COLUMN IS ABLE TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. CHANCE POPS WILL BE
INCLUDED FOR THE SOUTHER TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, RISING TO
LIKELY TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER AND A NE SURFACE FLOW FROM A HIGH OVER THE
UPPER OH VALLEY REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS INCREASE HEADING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
2. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH FAR INTO THE 80S,
POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 WITH SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION MORE LIKELY
BY FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROMOTING WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER. HEADING TOWARDS
MONDAY, THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, REACHING TO WEST TENNESSEE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE RAIN CHANCES, BUT INCREASING
DOWNSLOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. ON TUESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN AND TAKE AN
EASTWARD TURN, TRACKING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH BROAD
RIDGING EXPANDING FROM OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY, THIS RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, PUSHING TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER, FAR
INTO THE 80S. WITH SOME LOSS IN MOISTURE, CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
A LOT MORE LIMITED. BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BECOMES SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED
DUE TO TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN TIER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO MOISTURE RETURN. THIS WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH A TRUE SUMMERTIME PATTERN TAKING SHAPE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
RAIN STILL HANGING AROUND THE TN/GA STATE LINE, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE AREA OF THE KCHA AIRPORT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NO RAIN, BUT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED. EVENTUALLY THIS RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN IT MAKES IT TO KTYS/KTRI, BUT IMPACTS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOWER CEILINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 75 61 73 / 70 60 90 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 78 60 76 / 50 60 80 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 79 60 76 / 50 50 70 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 75 57 71 / 30 30 70 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...
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