121
FXUS64 KMRX 101839
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TN STATE LINE
BEFORE RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD THIS EVENING.
2. SUNNIER SKIES TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
CURRENTLY RAIN CONTINUES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE/NORTH
CAROLINA STATE LINES AS A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW SPINS IT'S WAY ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORCING WITH THIS
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND CLOUDY DRIZZLY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN/SOUTHWEST NC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LIGHT RAIN BAND WILL FINALLY GET A SHOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW AND SHOULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATING RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND
LIMITED TIME DURATION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50'S. CLOUDS WILL TRY AND
BREAK UP AND MOVE OUT TOMORROW LEADING TO INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AND IN RESPONSE WE'LL SEE TEMPS WARM UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH
THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SCATTERED. GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
2. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
NIGHT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY. A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF COAST IS CAUSED BY A CUT-OFF LOW
THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR LA. MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL STAY
TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED. POPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND HAVE COME DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NBM RUNS. THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO THE GULF DISTURBANCE BUT EVEN
THERE ONLY A 20% TO 25% CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY STARTS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION DOES NOT HAVE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHERLY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LIKELY WITH THE
TROUGH PULLING IN GULF MOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS ALSO. THEREFORE,
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DEW POINTS
GETTING BACK INTO THE 60S. WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
1.3 INCHES EARLY NEXT WEEK (NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
CLIMATOLOGY), WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FLOODING POTENTIAL.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND
STARTS BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
RAIN STILL HANGING AROUND THE TN/GA STATE LINE, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE AREA OF THE KCHA AIRPORT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NO RAIN, BUT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED. EVENTUALLY THIS RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN IT MAKES IT TO KTYS/KTRI, BUT IMPACTS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOWER CEILINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 75 62 75 / 70 60 90 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 78 61 76 / 50 60 80 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 79 61 74 / 50 50 80 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 75 59 73 / 30 30 80 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...
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