641
FXUS64 KMRX 261854
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
254 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
2. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOOTHILL TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
3. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE LATER TUESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION:
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER OUR
AREA AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING WESTERN TN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES, AND WE WILL SEE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AGAIN AS SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE ENERGY LOOKS LIMITED,
BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILTY IS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS STILL SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT RANGE IN THE MODELS, BUT
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-50 PERCENT) OF A FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING BY LATE TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY.
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD DURING THE DAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR, BUT HREF MEAN MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH
AND WEST COUNTIES ARE AROUND 750 J/KG, SO THOSE LOCATIONS ARE THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR, THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS LOW TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
2. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY.
3. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMALS THAN THE PAST WEEK BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION:
A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. GFS HAS A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM AND THE EURO HAS A STRONG
SURFACE SYSTEM. CAMS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT TAPERING OFF BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NBM IS FAVORING A WETTER
SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY DURING MAX HEATING BUT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT AGREEING CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT BUT SHEAR WILL BE LOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED WITH THE
TROUGH WELL UPSTREAM OVER IL/IA/MO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
AGREEMENT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE GFS HAS A
WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO IS DRIER WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND DEW POINT DROP EXPECTED. HI-RES GUIDANCE
DOES NOT GO OUT THIS FAR. NBM IS CARRYING 40 TO 60 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY BUT IF THE CLOUD AND RAIN FORECAST DOESN'T
PAN OUT THE TEMP FORECAST WILL NOT BE GREAT EITHER. UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGHER THAT USUAL THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WILL SEE AN IMPROVING TREND OVERALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AND
SHOULD SEE VFR ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM (ESPECIALLY CHA, WHERE A PROB30
THUNDER GROUP WILL BE INCLUDED) CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WILL TAKE CHA TO IFR CIGS AGAIN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
CHA, AND TO MVFR AT TYS. HOWEVER, ONCE CIGS LIFT THIS AFTERNOON
AT TRI WILL KEEP THEM PREVAILING VFR WITH JUST MVFR IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LLWS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE SO THIS WILL BE
MONITORED BUT NOT INCLUDED FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 76 64 81 / 70 80 90 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 76 63 78 / 70 80 90 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 73 62 78 / 80 80 90 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 67 57 76 / 60 80 90 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....MCD
AVIATION...
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