058
FXUS64 KMRX 271741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
141 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MORE OFF AND ON RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY. PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE CHANCES SEEM LOW
THOUGH.
2. WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH SOME BREEZY DOWNSLOPE TYPE WINDS
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 TO I-81 CORRIDORS TODAY.
DISCUSSION:
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TIMING OF
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CURRENTLY HAVE A WAVE OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM MIDDLE TN INTO
EASTERN KY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
MORNING, TO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO
MISSISSIPPI CYCLOGENESIS, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY TODAY. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED TO
DEVELOP FROM NE ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AROUND DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THIS WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH, BUT I
SUSPECT SUBTLE UPPER HEIGHT RISES OVERHEAD, AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ARKLATEX SHORTWAVE, WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL LIMITED IN NATURE.
THUS, MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE DRY FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE DAY
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK AREA EXTENDING NORTH TO NEAR THE
TN/AL/GA BORDER AREAS TODAY ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK, AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN WHERE THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE SITUATED.
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA
SEEM SOMEWHAT LOT, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH (BARELY SO, BUT ENOUGH)
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MIXED LAYER CAPE THIS AFTERNOON TO WHERE I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS SURVIVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IS HONESTLY A HEAD SCRATCHER TODAY.
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE COOL. TODAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH, THERE'S EVIDENCE OF SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY TODAY. STUCK WITH NBM GUIDANCE AS IT SHOWS SOME UPPER 70S
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS, WHERE YOU'D EXPECT DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND CLOUD
EROSION TO FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. LIKEWISE, BLENDED IN SOME OF THE
CAM GUIDANCE FOR WINDS TODAY AS WELL WHICH BROUGHT SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS OUT AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS. I LIKE THE NBM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE PATTERN, BUT THERE'S A DECENT SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE SO CONFIDENCE ISN'T TERRIBLY HIGH. THAT SAID, IT DOES
SEEM LIKE A WARMER, AND RELATIVELY "NICER" DAY THAN YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
2. SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND???
DISCUSSION:
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY. BEST RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE
TIMING OF THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS LOW, BUT WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A STRONGER LOW DIGGING IT'S WAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING STORM
CHANCES WILL LAST LONGER IN DURATION COMPARED TO THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
WITH STORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST TN
AND NOT COMPLETELY EXITING THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. LESS CERTAIN ON THE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN IN STORE AT TIMES FOR THE ENDING PART OF
THE WORK WEEK.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...I DON'T WANT TO GET ANYONE'S HOPES UP YET,
BUT IT MIGHT ACTUALLY START TO FEEL LIKE SUMMER TIME. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BUILD IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A
COUPLE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEING BROUGHT IN BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. AND WHILE I WOULD TYPICALLY SAY THAT THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS, I'M NOT GOING
TO RULE OUT SEEING OVERCAST SKIES AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND
BASED ON WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS PAST MONTH. WITH THE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING IN STRENGTH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80'S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER, PREVAILING
MVFR, AND PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER GUSTS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 81 64 76 / 80 40 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 78 62 77 / 90 50 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 78 62 77 / 90 50 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 75 60 77 / 80 70 30 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CD
AVIATION...JB
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