076
FXUS64 KMRX 271856
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
2. LESS WIDESPREAD, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PLACE US WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. SUBTLE VORT MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AHEAD OF THESE
DISTURBANCES. WE'LL SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SUBTLE
VORT MAX MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MOST
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CONTINUED TROUGHING, SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND SHORTWAVES RESULT IN
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
2. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
3. QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.
4. RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND
DRIER WEATHER. SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BECOMES MORE COMMON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION, IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
TIMING, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/MCV MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH LIKELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING ISSUES, MAINLY ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST, SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT
IN A COOL, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY, SATURDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, SOME
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY WITH THE DRIER
AIRMASS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE, LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS, SOME VIRGA FROM
EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION. WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A PROBABLE RETURN OF MORE
LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND
LIKELY TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER, PREVAILING
MVFR, AND PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER GUSTS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 81 64 76 / 80 40 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 78 62 77 / 90 50 30 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 78 62 77 / 90 50 30 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 75 60 77 / 80 70 30 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...JB
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