232
FXUS64 KMRX 281740
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS AREA WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING. LATEST MODELS AND HREF SHOW CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT ISOLATED THUNDER
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE VORT MAXIMA MOVES EASTWARD. VERY LITTLE
IF ANY THUNDER IS PRESENT WITHIN THE STORMS AS OF THIS WRITING,
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH
THE SYNOPTIC FORCING THAT IS PRESENT OVER THE REGION. ONCE THIS
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TAP FOR MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CONTINUED TROUGHING, SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND SHORTWAVES RESULT IN
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
2. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
3. RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
AND DRIER WEATHER. SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BECOMES MORE COMMON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
TIMING, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHEN EVERYTHING IS
SAID AND DONE WE COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST, SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW, SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION
SUNDAY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, AND WE COULD SEE SOME VIRGA FROM EVAPORATING
PRECIPITATION.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND AND A RETURN OF MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND LIKELY NUDGE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PLATEAU IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT INTO THE VALLEY LATER THIS AFERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TYS
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HREF AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE,
EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP. TRI AND CHA HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING, A GREAT DEAL OF FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY ERODE WITH A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 80 64 76 / 10 40 70 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 78 62 72 / 30 30 60 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 78 62 72 / 20 20 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 77 59 70 / 30 30 50 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH
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