833
FXUS64 KMRX 281934
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2. FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOME LOCALLY DENSE.
DISCUSSION:
- CURRENTLY AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PLATEAU WITH MLCAPES
OF 500-800 J/KG. LIMITED SHEAR AND FORCING BUT ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS AREA WILL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- FOR TONIGHT, THE VERTICAL PROFILE WILL DRY OUT EXCEPT FOR THE
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE
FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- FOR THURSDAY, FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE IN THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NEAR AREA TERRAIN FEATURES IS
EXPECTED. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH CAPES OF 500-1000 AND
LIMITED SHEAR SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
2. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS SATURDAY.
3. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
- A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED
WITH CAPES OF 500. STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH JET STRUCTURE
ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. A RATHER
COOL, CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY IS IN STORE. ENSEMBLE QPF
PROBABILITIES FAVORS 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
- AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING FOR
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIRMASS
AND EVENTUALLY RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PLATEAU IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DRIFT INTO THE VALLEY LATER THIS AFERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TYS
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HREF AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE,
EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP. TRI AND CHA HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING, A GREAT DEAL OF FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY ERODE WITH A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 80 65 76 / 10 40 70 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 79 63 72 / 30 30 60 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 79 63 73 / 20 20 70 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 78 59 71 / 30 30 50 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH
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