695
FXUS64 KMRX 291740
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. A SHORT-
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
PRODUCING PERIODS OF CONVECTION. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
NEAR THE TERRAIN FEATURES. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPES
OF 1000 WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. GENERALLY A FAIRLY SATURATED
VERTICAL PROFILE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS OF CONVECTION HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION:
THE RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL TRENDS TAKE OVER AND RAIN TAPERS OFF.
EXPECTING MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH THIS BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
EMBEDDED. THEN FRIDAY MORNING A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIME FRAME,
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
SEVERE CHANCES SEEM QUITE LOW AS INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE AND
SHEAR NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND/BELOW NORMAL.
2. PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR NOTABLE
WARMUP AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
3. POSSIBLE RETURN OF RAIN FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT A HOME
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, IN PARTICULAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. JET ENERGY ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTERNOONS, BUT EXPECT COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. LIKELY SEE DRY
CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE THOSE DAYS, WITH A SUMMER LIKE DIURNAL
TREND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. IT STILL LOOKS DRY
THAT DAY, BUT IT APPEARS A RETURN OF LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IS
PROBABLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THAT COULD PUT US BACK INTO AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 500+ IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS CHA AND TYS AREAS AND MOVING TOWARD TRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, PLENTY OF SURFACE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW-CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES.
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. STRONGER
BOUNDARY LAYER JET WILL ALSO PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 76 57 80 / 30 80 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 72 55 77 / 30 90 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 72 54 77 / 40 90 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 70 53 72 / 40 90 40 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH
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