629
FXUS64 KMRX 292304 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
2. FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOME LOCALLY DENSE.
3. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
- CURRENTLY AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PLATEAU WITH MLCAPES
OF AROUND 500 J/KG. LIMITED SHEAR AND FORCING BUT ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS AREA WILL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- FOR TONIGHT, CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE DENSE.
- A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED WITH CAPES OF 500.
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH JET STRUCTURE ENHANCING FRONTO-
GENETIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.
CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO THE COOL
AIR ALOFT AND RETURN SOME SUNSHINE, ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
EAST OF FAR EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES FAVORS 0.5
INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
2. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
3. NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION:
- AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS RETAIN AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SOUTHERN HALF SUNDAY. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
STRONG, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF
INCH AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
- FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING FOR
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIRMASS
AND EVENTUALLY RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
- NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FOR THE NEEXT FEW HOURS, AND
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR IF A SHOWER PASSES OVER A TERMINAL.
THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM,
LIKELY AT MVFR TO IFR LEVELS, POTENTIALLY LOWER AT TRI, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 76 58 81 / 30 80 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 71 55 76 / 30 90 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 72 55 78 / 40 90 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 70 53 72 / 50 90 40 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DGS
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