607
FXUS64 KMRX 301139
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
739 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
2. DECREASE IN STORMS AND CLOUD COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT OURS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
AIDED BY AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONT MOVING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THIS WILL ALSO BE THE TIME FRAME WHEN WE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT WE COULD SEE
A FEW STRAY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
MOUNTAINS TODAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE, BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS THE TROUGH/LOW MOVES
UP INTO THE THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
2. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. PROBABILISTIC
MODELS RETAIN AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SOUTHERN HALF SUNDAY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH AND STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
DRIER AIRMASS AND EVENTUALLY RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET FORCING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. BESIDES THE CONVECTION, PLENTY OF
SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CHA/TYS AROUND 14-15Z AND TRI
16-17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BETTER MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER JET WILL INCREASE
WINDS BY MID TO LATE-MORNING. GUSTS OF 25-28 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE INTO TRI/TYS WILL REDEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER TYS/TRI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 57 81 59 / 70 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 55 77 57 / 90 10 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 55 78 56 / 90 10 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 53 72 51 / 90 40 50 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...DH
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