195
FXUS64 KMRX 310532
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
2. AFTER A MORNING BREAK, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS IN
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION:
FRONT IS WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND BEHIND IT
WE'RE SEEING MUCH COOLER AIR FUNNEL INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S AND EVEN IN THE 40'S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WE APPROACH THE MONTH OF JUNE. ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA NEARER THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING
WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THAT COULD BRING A
QUICK ROUND OF RAIN.
WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE LATER TODAY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. WITH THE ENHANCED ENERGY
PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA THE AFTERNOON SUM
COULD SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF
LIGHTNING IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BRING DRIER, WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TO ACT AS A SPARK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ANYONE DOING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHILE TRYING TO ENJOY THE EXTRA SUN SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THE WEATHER SO THEY DON'T GET CAUGHT OUT IN A STORM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN AND BRING WITH IT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN THE CLIMB TOWARD THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL HELP USHER IN A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE IT'S WAY TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 DURING THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KTRI, BUT THEY WILL ALSO
BRING WITH THEM LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND KTRI, BUT
CERTAINTY ON TIMING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TEMPO OF FM GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 61 82 59 / 0 0 50 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 59 77 55 / 20 20 50 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 58 77 54 / 20 20 50 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 53 73 47 / 60 20 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page