316
FXUS64 KMRX 040526
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
2. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SMOKIES SOUTHWARD, INCLUDING OUR NC
COUNTIES. BUT MOST EVERYONE WILL REMAIN DRY.
DISCUSSION:
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RELENT TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXPANDS
EASTWARD. AS SUCH, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT IT
WON'T BE OPPRESSIVELY HOT BECAUSE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT FOR
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES. THE ONLY CAVEAT WOULD BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SMOKIES SOUTHWARD, INCLUDING OUR NC COUNTIES.
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE WANING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED OVER FAR
WESTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP.
SIMILARLY, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF ONE OR TWO FIRE OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AREA AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS
TO BE ON DECK.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, BUT DOESN'T STRENGTHEN PER SE AS THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TAMPS THE RIDGE
DOWN BY SUN. THUS SAT AND SUN SHOULD REMAIN DRY MOST EVERYWHERE,
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY ONWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
TO THE WESTERN CONUS AND WE GET MORE OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INCREASING BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN PUSHES A FRONT
OUR DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE GET AN ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WITH AN EASTERN TROUGHING PATTERN IN PLACE, THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD, AND THE FRONT NEARBY TO OUR NORTH,
WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU
AROUND 6,000 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 95 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 93 69 93 70 / 10 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 93 69 94 69 / 0 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 65 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...CD
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