352
FXUS64 KMRX 050627
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
227 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. DESPITE A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT, AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST, UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN STEADY OVER OUR CWA TODAY. AS
SUCH, TODAY WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF
ANY, SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AS MODELS SHOW A NOTABLE CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT SO CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED. YOU CAN
NEVER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HERE IN
THE SUMMER, BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. STEADY INCREASE IN AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD,
RETURNING FIRST TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SUN, WITH AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AREA WIDE BY TUE/WED.
2. INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
THERE'S BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY'S DAY SHIFT. AS SUCH, WITH MINIMAL EDITS THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP A BIT ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
PINCHED BETWEEN A TROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SC COAST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY DON'T
APPEAR AS CAPPED COMPARED TO SATURDAY, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE
70S DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP SPREADS INTO THE
VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY START PUSHING TOWARD 100 IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AS WELL.
A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
AS A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON BY MIDWEEK
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE WE GET AN ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WITH AN EASTERN TROUGHING
PATTERN IN PLACE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD, AND THE
FRONT NEARBY TO OUR NORTH, WE COULD BE SETTING UP FOR A WETTER
PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SOME HAZE, LIKELY FROM AN INCREASE IN PARTICULATES FROM AREA
FIREWORKS, WILL CONTINUE AT KCHA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN IN VSBY THERE. THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KCHA
NOTWITHSTANDING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT050 BASES ASSOCIATED WITH
AFTERNOON CU FIELD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 72 95 73 / 0 0 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 94 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 94 69 93 71 / 0 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 64 90 67 / 10 0 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...CD
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