276
FXUS64 KMRX 051755
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUL5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
2. INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION. CHANTAL WILL STAY WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA AND HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACTS.
SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY A DRY DAY AGAIN FOR MOST SPOTS, ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL EXTEND OVER THE
APPALACHIANS, AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MONDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP SPREADS
INTO THE VALLEY.
THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND APPROACHING THROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON
TUESDAY, WITH PW VALUES RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES AND MLCAPE OVER
2000 J/KG. A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A
GREATER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH AS IT PARALLELS
THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY BY
THURSDAY, HELPING TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A RATHER WET
PERIOD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 95 72 96 / 0 10 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 93 72 94 / 0 10 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 94 71 93 / 0 10 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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