112
FXUS64 KMRX 121122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS THAT OBSERVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 40-60MPH
AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION:
OVERNIGHT TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT. STARTING
TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS PER LATEST GOES-16
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WERE TODAY'S WINNERS IN REGARDS TO BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE,
AND WILL LIKELY BE THE MORE PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
ATOP THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS. A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 15-20KTS PER LATEST
RAP AND NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500-
2000 J/KG AND DCAPE BETWEEN 700-1000J/KG. BECAUSE OF ABOVE, THE
CHANCE TO HAVE A FEW STRONGER OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON RELATIVE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
OVERALL, THE THREAT IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE BUT JUST SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND. MAIN IMPACTS IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP
WILL BE WINDS(40-60MPH) AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THOUGH FOG TRENDS MAY BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
RECENT NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DAILY SUMMER-TIME CONVECTION CONTINUES. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED COVERAGE AS TROUGHING INFLUENCE INCREASES THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
2. HOT CONDITIONS RETURN AS AN UPPER RIDGES STRENGTH PEAKS IN THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100F WILL BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATEST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR RETURNS BACK TO 10KTS OR
LESS, FURTHER LIMITING ALREADY LOW CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING ABOUT 1DAM EACH DAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDS BACK. EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME.
BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WHILE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION PERSISTS, THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE ON HEAT INDICES NEAR THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S BECOMING EVEN
MORE COMMON, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL VALLEY AND FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS. BY
THURSDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THERE IS POTENTIAL TO
SEE INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AROUND ESPECIALLY TRI TO START, BUT
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND WILL INCLUDE PROB30
GROUPS FOR THUNDER ALL SITES. FOG/LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE PERIOD, BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IF RAIN ENDS UP
OCCURRING AT ANY GIVEN SITE WHICH IS STILL UNKNOWN, SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 72 94 72 / 50 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 71 91 71 / 40 20 40 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 70 91 70 / 50 20 50 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 68 87 68 / 40 30 40 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...
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