620
FXUS64 KMRX 181112
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
2. HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
3. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE
KY/TN BORDER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN IS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE SAME AREAS NORTH OF
I-40. SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA IN PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS. THE PATTERN WILL BE ALMOST THE SAME FOR SATURDAY, EXCEPT A
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING
A MINOR SHORTWAVE OR TWO THROUGH THE REGION HELPING TO INCREASE
LIFT. GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI JUL 18
2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WITH THE STORMS.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS THE VALLEY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY SEPARATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MIDWEEK, LESS COVERAGE IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS A RIDGE GRIPS THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC, DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND DIURNAL STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED BUT MAY BE MORE HIT AND MISS. IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME THERE MAY BE A LINGERING THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY HAVE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT
RAINS.
THE HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE TN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY ONWARD. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 TO
105 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
MORNING FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT TRI WITHIN THE LAST HOUR BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS. REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IF A STORM MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN
10 KTS WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5,000 FEET AGL. ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
AT TRI. HOWEVER, IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 74 91 75 / 60 40 60 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 74 89 74 / 60 40 70 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 73 88 73 / 70 40 80 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 70 85 70 / 70 40 80 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM....MCD
AVIATION...BW
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