617
FXUS64 KMRX 101109
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
709 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
2. SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL
HOVERING AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS IN PART DUE TO THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
MOVING FURTHER EAST AND PUSHING OUT THE MEANDERING TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. WITH LESS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT WE'RE ALSO LESS
LIKELY TO SEE THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT ONE WEATHER-WISE AS WE
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CANADA DOESN'T ALLOW THE DOMINATING RIDGE TO REALLY HEAT UP
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WITH
LITTLE FORCING BESIDES THE MODERATE TEMPERATURES, AND NO SHEAR THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MOVE VERY FAR OFF OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK THE SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE DRAWING UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF. THIS WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND, BUT WE'LL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 70'S INSTEAD OF UPPER
60'S AT THE SAME TIME THE TEMPERATURE IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...
LEADING TO A MORE MUGGY AND TYPICAL AUGUST ATMOSPHERE. THIS INCREASE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BEING IMPACTED BY THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW TO
HANDLE WHAT IS LOOKING TO BE A MORE ACTIVE GULF AND ATLANTIC FOR THE
BACK HALF OF AUGUST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
CLOUD COVER AND FOG OVERNIGHT WAS VERY ISOLD IN NATURE; PRIMARILY
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTH OF TRI INTO SW VA. VFR WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST. ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST. CALM CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 71 89 72 / 10 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 69 89 72 / 10 10 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 69 90 71 / 10 0 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 66 87 67 / 10 10 40 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS
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