280
FXUS64 KMRX 102340
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
2. INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAIN RATES POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION:
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US IS STILL IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER, AND TO OUR WEST THERE IS TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS REGION. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY. THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE,
AND WHILE MANY LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY MONDAY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MORE AREAS THAN TODAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AGAIN MONDAY.
BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING
OUT. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, AND GULF MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER OUR AREA. NAEFS DATA SHOWS PW VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING MUCH OF
THE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY PERIOD, AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE DEEP
MOISTURE WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED
BY WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO BE CONFIDENTLY
TIMED FROM THIS FAR OUT. VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT BROAD UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND THE PLUME OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER,
WITH NO STRONG DRYING EXPECTED WE WILL STILL SEE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD SO BETTER SHRA POTENTIAL TOMORROW. HOWEVER, STILL THINK
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE GOING WITH ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN PROB30 MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
KCHA, BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SHRA INVOF THE OTHER SITES
BY MID AFTERNOON AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL,
BUT KCHA WILL HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO ANY SHRA
ACTION THERE MAY DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 88 73 87 / 10 40 20 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 88 71 87 / 10 30 20 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 89 71 88 / 0 30 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 86 67 86 / 10 30 20 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...CD
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