672
FXUS64 KMRX 111114
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
2. INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
RATES POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WITH MOST SHOWERS EVAPORATING VERY QUICKLY ONCE
THEY MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80'S FOR
MUCH OF THE VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH LIMITED
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE FAR FROM THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WHERE IT HAS RAINED.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH WORK WEEK, SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY, DRAWING UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MORE HUMID ATMOSPHERE, WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 70S. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE INDICATING MUCH
MORE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT GROW STRONG
ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL POSE AN INCREASED
FLOODING THREAT WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THAN WE'VE SEEN
RECENTLY. IF ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION, ESPECIALLY A CITY, GETS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN OR A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM WE COULD QUICKLY SEE
FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP AS RAINFALL RATES OVERRUN THE LOCAL DRAINAGE
SYSTEMS.
THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD DEVELOP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT,
BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, WHICH COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO THE REGION. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
PRECIPITATION ALSO TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CHA FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING,
THEN LIFT BACK TO VFR BEFORE MOVING IN AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TYS AND TRI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WHILE A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE
PROBABILITY OF ONE IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 73 87 72 / 40 20 80 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 71 87 72 / 30 20 60 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 90 71 87 72 / 30 10 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 68 86 69 / 50 20 60 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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