532
FXUS64 KMRX 131735
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
3. REDUCED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AL HAS BEEN PUMPING GULF MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA TODAY, PRODUCING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES THAT HAVE LED TO FLOODING. RADAR TRENDS
SHOW DECREASING OVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, BUT
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS GA
AND SC, SHIFTING THE 850-500 MB FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT. WITH THE REDUCTION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF FORCING,
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER, ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOG COULD BE DENSE
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
A SHORTAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OZARKS TODAY, AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW. WE WILL
STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, BUT PW
VALUES DROP INTO THE 1.75-1.9 INCH RANGE, AND MLCAPE STAYS UNDER
1000 J/KG FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
THE TERRAIN AREAS BEING FAVORED FOR THE BEST COVERAGE. THE FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE LESS TOMORROW GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DRYING COLUMN AND
STRONGER STEERING WINDS ALOFT, BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAD A LOT OF RAIN TODAY.
A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MERGE WITH THE RIDGE OVER FL,
LEADING TO A LARGE, AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR
AREA, ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS ARE SHOWING A DISSIPATING TREND ON RADAR, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES. TRI WILL LIKELY BE THE LOWEST, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AROUND SUNRISE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY
AT TYS AND CHA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NOON,
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 88 72 91 / 40 50 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 87 70 91 / 40 50 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 87 70 90 / 30 50 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 83 67 87 / 40 50 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-
WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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