546
FXUS64 KMRX 141744
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NC BORDER, CUMERLAND PLATEAU, AND SW VA. IN
THE TN VALEY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED, DEPENDENT ON
REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS NEAR THE TERRAIN AREAS. WITH
THE LACK OF FORCING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL END NEAR SUNSET. DENSE FOG
WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE
SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED VALLEY
SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A QUARTER MILE IN THE EARLY MORNING,
MAINLY IN SW VA AND NE TN, AND POSSIBLY SW NC.
A LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
PERSISTENT, WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST NEAR THE OZARKS,
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD. UNDER THIS RIDGE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RISING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY
SUNDAY. THE HEAT INDEX COULD APPROACH 100 IN SOME SPOTS BY MONDAY.
WE MAY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT, FOG WILL BE
POSSILE AT ALL SITES, BUT DENSE FOG CHANCES ARE LOWER AT CHA AND
TYS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WILL MENTION 6SM WITH VCFG AT
THOSE LOCATIONS. TRI IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT, WITH VIS/CIGS
GRADUALLY RISING IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 71 93 / 10 30 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 90 70 91 / 10 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 90 69 92 / 10 20 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 87 66 89 / 10 10 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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