532
FXUS64 KMRX 142321
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NC BORDER, CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND SW VA.
IN THE TN VALLEY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED,
DEPENDENT ON REDEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS NEAR THE
TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE LACK OF FORCING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
NEAR SUNSET. DENSE FOG WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE, BUT THERE COULD BE
A FEW ISOLATED VALLEY SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A QUARTER MILE
IN THE EARLY MORNING, MAINLY IN SW VA AND NE TN, AND POSSIBLY SW
NC.
A LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
PERSISTENT, WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST NEAR THE OZARKS,
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD. UNDER THIS RIDGE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RISING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY
SUNDAY. THE HEAT INDEX COULD APPROACH 100 IN SOME SPOTS BY MONDAY.
WE MAY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING AT ALL OF THE SITES WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO OUR WEST. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
TRI WHERE REDUCTIONS TO LIFR ARE EXPECTED. AT TYS, REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR WERE ADDED, BUT REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY,
CONFIDENCE IS LESS AT CHA, BUT FOG INCLUSION IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR PREVAILING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND
CHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 90 71 93 / 10 30 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 90 70 91 / 10 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 90 69 92 / 10 20 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 87 66 89 / 10 10 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
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