794
FXUS64 KMRX 150638
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PATCHY FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, WILL FAVOR RIVER VALLEYS
AND BODIES OF WATER EARLY THIS MORNING.
2. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SE TN, SW NC, AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE E TN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TN VALLEY
LOCATIONS INTO SW VA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
3. MOSTLY DRY PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
4. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
QUIET RADAR TONIGHT AS A DIFFUSE FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG WITH MANY STATIONS ALREADY OBSERVING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
BETWEEN 0 AND 2 DEGREESF, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD ADVECTING
ALOFT MAY HELP LIMIT COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. HREF PROBABILITIES OF
VISIBILITY 1MI OR LESS IS GENERALLY GREATEST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS(15-
30%). WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRODUCTS FOR NOW BUT KEEP A CLOSE MONITOR
FOR THE NEED OF ANY THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A BROAD BUT
MODERATE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
MORE ZONAL ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AS TROUGH SWINGS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MEDIUM(20-50%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE GREATEST ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF I-40 IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40
AND UP INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CAMS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS. NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT
PWS REMAINING ELEVATED, AROUND 1.8" IN SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT WITH A
DAY OF DRYING OUT THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
QUITE LOW AND CONDITIONAL ON TRAINING DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM TERRAIN
AND/OR OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. MORE SO A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
CONVECTION KIND OF DAY WHERE SOME BRIEF IMPACTS OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
H5 596DAM RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE OZARKS AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HEIGHT INCREASES WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOW-MID 90S HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. OVERALL, THE THERMO PROFILE IS A BIT FALL-ESQUE IN TERMS
HOW DRY IT LOOKS AND THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL NBM DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S COULD BE OVER DONE, AT LEAST FOR AFTERNOON MIXING
HOURS DURING THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN TO HAVE
A GREATER WEIGHT INTO THE NBM, IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE DEWPOINTS
DECREASE WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE THE NEAR 100F HEAT INDICES.
THIS DRIER AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO LIMIT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CHANCES TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE PATTERN WILL LARGELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TROUGHING INFLUENCE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES IS POSSIBLE AS WHAT
IS NOW TS ERIN PROGRESSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS PER LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. TAFS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH TRI THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
IFR OR POTENTIAL LIFR IMPACTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED A PROB30 AT CHA. OVERALL, PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG IMPACTS AT TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 72 94 72 / 40 10 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 91 71 93 70 / 20 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 67 90 66 / 20 10 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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