009
FXUS64 KMRX 152337
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE APPALACHIANS,
BUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN AL. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS, BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NORTHERN HALF, SO
THAT AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN-FREE.
A LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY REGION
TOMORROW, THEN DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL HELP LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN OUR AREA, AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAIN DRY AIR THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN AND FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER AND OUR SW NC COUNTIES. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE
SUNDAY, WHEN THE NAM SHOWS UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE OH VALLEY
TRACKING SE, UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE DRY NBM WILL BE FOLLOWED
FOR NOW. UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY SUNDAY. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH 100 IN SOME SPOTS BY MONDAY. WE MAY SEE A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE,
BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
IFR FOG AT CHA AND TRI OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPO LIFR AT TRI. MOST
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT CHA BUT RAIN EARLIER TODAY MAKES FOG
PROBABLE. TRI FOG IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, AS FOG HAS OCCURRED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 93 71 93 / 10 20 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 93 70 92 / 10 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 93 70 93 / 10 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 89 65 89 / 0 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...
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