027
FXUS64 KMRX 050000 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
800 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT A
BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
2. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
3. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS OF 1,500 J/KG
OR MORE OF MLCAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KTS IN SOME
AREAS. 0-1KM SHEAR HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS, REACHING TO 20 KTS IN
MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME EARLIER STORMS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION.
WITH THIS SETUP, DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
A BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BASED ON
RECENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST ACTIVITY TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT NORTH BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STRENGTHENING BY THE EVENING. BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM, SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. HEADING INTO
THE NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST,
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING SEEN TODAY, BUT THE NOCTURNAL ASPECT WILL
LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT
WILL REACH INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE
LESS VEERED WITH MORE LIMITED SHEAR. ULTIMATELY, CHANCES FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN DURING THIS TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL MOVE PAST THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY, PROMOTING DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROPPING
FAR INTO THE 50S AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEIGHT RISES
WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. CONTINUED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT. I HAVE THIS ACCOUNTED FOR AT KTRI AND KTYS WHERE
THIS IS MOST LIKELY. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AFTER THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
TONIGHT, MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA. I DON'T THINK
THIS IS UNREASONABLE, AND IT WOULD AFFECT KCHA FIRST THEN KTYS.
BUT THAT'S A LOW CONFIDENCE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST SO I'M LEAVING
IT OUT FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 67 92 69 / 40 20 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 65 90 68 / 60 20 0 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 63 89 66 / 70 20 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 60 85 63 / 80 40 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CD
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