949
FXUS64 KMRX 061734
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST.
2. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN THE
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION:
WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED ALONG OUR NORTHWEST BORDER COUNTIES OF THE PLATEAU AND SW
VA. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT, AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO
OUR EAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. INSTABILTIY IS VERY LIMITED
ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AREAS) THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST SUNDAY ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. SUNDAY WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS,
WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD, WITH HIGHS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SHOWERS ARE AROUND TO START, BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EARLY
IN THE PERIOD BUT THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRI, AND WILL INCLUDE
VCSH THERE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS THE
FORECAST FOR ANY LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PROBABILITY
FOR BOTH LOOKS HIGHEST AT TRI SO WILL CARRY MVFR CONDITIONS THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL BE WORSE. ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT DOES FORM DISSIPATES
EARLY SUNDAY, WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 80 59 81 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 77 54 80 / 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 77 53 79 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 74 48 77 / 30 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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