815
FXUS64 KMRX 121732
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND EVEN QUITE LOW THERE.
DISCUSSION:
IN GENERAL, UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME CLOSED OR
SEMI-CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY MON/TUE NEXT
WEEK. WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA? NOT MUCH.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WE'LL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE WAY IT LOOKS CURRENTLY, HIGHS WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MANY LOW ELEVATION LOCALES AS WELL.
ON THE RAIN FRONT, IT'S NOT TERRIBLY PROMISING THERE. VARIOUS MODELS
DO HAVE SOME HINT OF RAINFALL AT TIMES, BUT MAINLY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT
WEEK AS THE COASTAL UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER AND THERE'S SOME
DEGREE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN THE H85 FLOW. AGAIN,
THIS IS PRIMARILY ON THE NC SIDE OF THINGS. THE NBM DOES HAVE SOME
20-30 PERCENT TYPE RAIN CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TN AND INTO
VA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE TIME BEING SO I LEFT THAT AS IS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCH FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AGAIN
TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO
SEE IT WOULD BE KTRI OR KTYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW SO I LEFT
IT OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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