123
FXUS64 KMRX 132341
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
741 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND EVEN QUITE LOW THERE.
DISCUSSION:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO DISCUSS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AS SUCH,
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LARGELY FOLLOWS, WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE NEAR THE MS VALLEY REGION, WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS WILL PUT EAST TN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. MODELS DO SHOW A VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVEN THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, ALONG WITH MOISTENING IN A LAYER BETWEEN
7-10KFT ALOFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ADDED IN SOME MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT I'M NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY, SOME CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND PERHAPS THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS. STUCK WITH THE DRY NBM FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE IS MIXED AND
I PREFERRED TO GO WITH A DRY PERSISTENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE
PATTERN WE'RE IN. HOWEVER, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME RAIN
CHANCES NEED INTRODUCING THERE.
THE TROUGH NEAR THE SE COAST EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY THAT LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
DRIFTING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER, EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH ON PRECIP FOR US. THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN CHATTANOOGA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE WATERWAYS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, A
LOW PROBABILITY LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ABLE TO IMPACT KTRI.
OTHERWISE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT NO
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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