874
FXUS64 KMRX 142239
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2. POSSIBLE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
THE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD CAN BE DEFINED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND
OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE LATTER OF THE LOWS AND RIDGING. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY. ALTHOUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AND SHIFT LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING MOVED TO BE
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE REGION, WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY LOW 90S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND, INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VAR WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z MONDAY NEAR TRI, BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO
IMPACT TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 85 63 83 / 0 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 85 62 83 / 0 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 82 59 76 / 0 10 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...JB
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