002
FXUS64 KMRX 150530
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND EVEN QUITE LOW THERE.
DISCUSSION:
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE NEAR THE MS VALLEY REGION, WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS WILL PUT EAST TN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. ON SUNDAY, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME CAMS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. SINCE IT'S
STILL A FEW FORECAST UPDATES AWAY, WILL STICK WITH THE DRY NBM FOR
NOW AND SEE IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH NEAR THE SE COAST EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY THAT LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
DRIFTING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER, EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
BULLISH ON PRECIP FOR US. THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN CHATTANOOGA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
LIGHT FOG IS ALREADY CREEPING IN AROUND THE KTRI TERMINAL, AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...
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