018
FXUS64 KMRX 161758
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
2. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PULLING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA WITH EASTERLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/50S EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WEST.
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND MID-
ATLANTIC UPPER LOW, COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO WIDESLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPES OF 500-1000 SO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE EMBEDDED
THUNDER.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS AND UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PWS OF 0.8 TO 1 INCH
WILL BE COMMON KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT-
WAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, AIRMASS STAYS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES KEEP GULF
MOISTURE LIMITED.
THE BUILDING RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PULLING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
WITH EASTERLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/50S EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WEST.
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND MID-
ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES OF 500-1000 SO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 87 62 89 / 10 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 84 60 86 / 20 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 84 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 80 56 83 / 10 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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