722
FXUS64 KMRX 171743
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, NO THREAT OF ANY DAILY MAX T RECORDS BEING BROKEN.
2. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3. CHANCES FOR RAIN IN PLACE BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN, QUIET
CONDITIONS TONIGHT OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG A FEW OF THE
AREA WATERWAYS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FEATURE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST TN MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
NC ON EITHER DAY BUT VERY LOW CHANCES.
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. NBM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS ON SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED AREAS OF SLIGHT
CHANCE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOW A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY
MONDAY WITH A CUTOFF LOW PERHAPS DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. THIS
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WOULD THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR
FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BEFORE THERE IS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN POP
FORECASTS INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAVE THE NBM FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS AS IS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME LOW 90S DOWN INTO CHATTANOOGA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT
FOG AT ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR IN
PLACE TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 89 62 90 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 83 56 85 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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