013
FXUS64 KMRX 022335 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 733 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
- DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST DATA, NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED DURING
THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENFORCE A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS TODAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER QUEBEC, EXPECTED TO
SINK FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME. MEANWHILE, WHAT WAS ONCE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING OVERHEAD, WILL BROADEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. WE
WILL SIT UNDER THIS INFLUENCE OF BROADENED RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CENTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EASTWARD,
COMPRESSING THE RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY CHANGE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK.
TODAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH VALLEY HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S INSTEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO FEEL A BIT DRIER OUT TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THE "COOLER" TREND OR WHAT'S NORMAL FOR OCTOBER, AS WELL AS DRIER
AIR SETTLING IN FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE MOISTURE
RETURN. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS WEATHER-
WISE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY OR SO. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME, A
GULF COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO SEND MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA, RETURNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MARCH ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
THE QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FOG POTENTIAL AT TRI.
SOME GUIDANCE TAKES VIS DOWN TO 1/4SM, AND BASED ON AFTERNOON
DWEPOINTS AND FORECAST LOW TEMPS, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER,
WE EXPECT TO SEE FALLING DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BUILD SOUTHWARD AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NE
TN. WITH AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF FOG, WILL MENTION LIFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUN
AVIATION...DGS
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