054
FXUS64 KMRX 032312
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, WE'LL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK.
WE EXPECT THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW/WNW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WHEREAS OUR BEST RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, AT NO POINT DO PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES GO ABOVE 50 PERCENT. NBM HISTOGRAMS SHOWS A
LOGARITHMIC DISTRIBUTION WITH A SLIGHT BIMODAL PATTERN TO THE
ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS FOR LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF QPF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT IF WE DO GET THE
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THERE
ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF 2 TO 3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. NEXT WEEK'S
FORECAST STILL HAS A LOT OF ROOM TO SHIFT IN A DRIER OR WETTER
DIRECTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
DRY WEATHER WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS APART FROM A GUST OR TWO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING NEAR KTRI BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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