041
FXUS64 KMRX 040548
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
148 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN LOCKED ACROSS THE GULF AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN US WITH DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED. FOR US,
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW
POINTS ON THE RISE AS WELL. AFTER TODAY, DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO
EXCEED 60 DEGREES. THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST PACKAGES
NOW HAS BEEN AN EXTENDING DRY TREND, WITH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND NOW POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS WELL. HIGH
PRESSURE WON'T ONLY AFFECT THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT MAY
PROVIDE SOME BREEZY NIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.
A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO ROLL EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY TO US. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT
MAY BRING WELCOMED PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA AROUND THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AS NOTED IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S
DISCUSSION, THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES, WILL WE EVEN SEE THAT MUCH
RAINFALL? NBM 48 HOUR PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDING
JUST A HALF AN INCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IS PRETTY LOW -
HARDLY GRAZING 50% IN THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. AND IT LESSENS THE
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST YOU GO. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
IF WE CAN EVEN RING OUT ANY SORT OF BENEFICIAL MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONT. OF COURSE, ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING.
AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WE TURN DRY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST. WE
MAY FINALLY TREND TOWARDS MORE OCTOBER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT, WITH TRI
BEING THE SITE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. WILL INCLUDE MVFR
VSBY AT TRI FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE VSBY
DETAILS. OTHERWISE, WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST ALL SITES FOR THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 61 83 66 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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