059
FXUS64 KMRX 050553
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
153 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A 40-70% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
BECOMING MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. NOT
ONLY THAT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS WELL AS RISING
HUMIDITY. MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GULF MOISTURE
REMAINING LOCKED TO OUR SOUTH, BUT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING DID TRY
TO BRING AN OUTSIDE ISOLATED CHANCE TO SW NC AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOMORROW. KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THE DRIER
SIDE OF THINGS, THUS REMOVING ANY WORDING OF PRECIPITATION.
AS WE ROLL INTO TUESDAY, RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING THAT WILL ESSENTIALLY CUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY, ZONALLY. A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL EJECT ALMOST DUE EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL IMPACT US AROUND THE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS
THAT QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED, WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE
LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING A HALF INCH
ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER PLATEAU IS NOW WITHIN THE 60%
RANGE, WHEREAS BEFORE, IT HARDLY GRAZED 50%. A GOOD TREND SINCE
WE'D LIKE TO SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AFTER DAYS OF BEING DRY.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, IT'S POSSIBLE LIGHT, ALBEIT A LOW CHANCE, OF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS AROUND THURSDAY AND MAYBE INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL DUE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THE END OF THIS
WEEK. UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS AND A DECREASE OF A FEW DEGREES C 850 MB
TEMPS, FALL LOVERS MAY REJOICE AT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
VALLEY! OR WHAT WE SHOULD BE SEEING FOR ALMOST MID OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
FOG CHANCES LATE TONIGHT LOOK LOW, SO WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST
FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 65 83 65 / 10 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 62 84 63 / 0 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 61 82 63 / 0 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 57 82 58 / 10 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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