783
FXUS64 KMRX 060552
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
152 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
AND STORMS BACK TO THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM; 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MORE SEASONAL READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TODAY, REPLACED BY
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASED
RETURN FLOW AND PERSISTENT GULF MOISTURE UNLEASHED NORTHWARD,
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN TODAY. IT'S
POSSIBLE A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY FOR
SOME, COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MOST, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, HUMIDITY, AND CONTINUED WARMTH.
THE APPROACHING LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BRING A WELCOMED COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONE MORE DAY OF HIGHS
IN THE 80S UNTIL THE REST OF THE FORECAST READS IN THE 70S,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST
CLOSEST TO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA. QPF TOTALS DROP CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST TN. IT'S POSSIBLE OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN COULD BE SEEN FROM THE UPPER PLATEAU, VALLEY, AND
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VA. SMALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXHIBIT D0 ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED JUST BEFORE THE
END OF LAST MONTH.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
MAY KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND. ONCE PAST THAT, IT'LL BE ANOTHER DRY
WEEKEND WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER
STRENGTHENING NE US SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLOSED LOW
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR FOG MAINLY TYS AND TRI LATE TONIGHT,
AND LOW CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CHA MAINLY DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME
THOSE PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO WARRANT THEIR INCLUSION IN
THE FORECAST, SO WILL CONTINUE THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 68 83 68 / 10 10 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 64 82 67 / 0 10 30 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 64 81 66 / 10 20 40 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 60 80 64 / 0 10 30 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page