936
FXUS64 KMRX 061112
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
AND STORMS BACK TO THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM; 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MORE SEASONAL READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TODAY, REPLACED BY
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASED
RETURN FLOW AND PERSISTENT GULF MOISTURE UNLEASHED NORTHWARD,
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN TODAY. IT'S
POSSIBLE A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY FOR
SOME, COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MOST, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, HUMIDITY, AND CONTINUED WARMTH.
THE APPROACHING LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BRING A WELCOMED COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONE MORE DAY OF HIGHS
IN THE 80S UNTIL THE REST OF THE FORECAST READS IN THE 70S,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST
CLOSEST TO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA. QPF TOTALS DROP CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST TN. IT'S POSSIBLE OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN COULD BE SEEN FROM THE UPPER PLATEAU, VALLEY, AND
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VA. SMALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXHIBIT D0 ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED JUST BEFORE THE
END OF LAST MONTH.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
MAY KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND. ONCE PAST THAT, IT'LL BE ANOTHER DRY
WEEKEND WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER
STRENGTHENING NE US SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLOSED LOW
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY CHA, BUT
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO CHA FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY AND THEN AGAIN
LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT INCLUSION. WILL GO WITH A VFR FORECAST ALL SITES FOR THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 68 83 68 / 10 10 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 64 82 67 / 0 10 30 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 64 81 66 / 10 20 40 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 60 80 64 / 0 10 30 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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