890
FXUS64 KMRX 260512
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
112 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA, BUT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY, TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT HIT/MISS UNTIL BETTER FORCING MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. WE'LL
HAVE A CAD SETUP IN PLACE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT, AND
MODELS SHOW THE H85 WINDS IN A FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. BUT H85
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN STELLAR IN THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS RESIDING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
END OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN NORTHERN GEORGIA. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGEST LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE H85
WINDS EXCEEDING 30KT OVER THE SMOKIES. STILL, I THINK THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY OUTPERFORM WHAT THE NBM GUIDANCE HAS SO I BLENDED IN SOME
ARW AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TO BRING THE GUSTS UP INTO THE
30-40MPH RANGE OVER THE SMOKIES MAINLY. HARD TO BELIEVE THE PURE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WON'T RESULT IN
SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
HIGH THAT WE WON'T HIT HIGH WIND CRITERIA, WHILE ADVISORY WINDS
STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE.
NO REAL CHANGES FOR NEXT WEEK TO BE HONEST. AS SUCH THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THAT PERIOD LARGELY FOLLOWS. RAIN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL AS OCTOBER HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRIER
THAN AVERAGE THUS FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL, THOUGH LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY FILL IN BETWEEN THE
TWO. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW BRINGS US THE FIRST BOUT OF
RAINFALL TOMORROW EVENING INTO MONDAY, AND THEN A LARGER TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING THE SECOND BOUT. THERE'S
LARGER UNCERTAINTY ON THE BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK REGARDING WHERE THE
BIG SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED; THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BUT DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE SOME OF THE EMBEDDED FEATURES WIND UP. BUT DESPITE THE
VARIOUS SCENARIOS EXPECTING SOME AMOUNT OF SOGGINESS LEADING UP TO
HALLOWEEN IS A GOOD BET. THE NBM ONLY HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES ON
HALLOWEEN ITSELF, WITH PROMISING EARLY SIGNALS FROM THE MAJOR
DETERMINISTIC SUITE THAT WE MAY SEE DRY WEATHER BY THEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN LOWER
TO AROUND 5 KFT TOMORROW, SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UP THE TN
VALLEY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE NEAR CHA IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND AT TYS IN THE EVENING, BRINGING MVFR VIS, AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS AT CHA. A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2 KFT AGL AND
A STRENGTHENING LLJ IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AT CHA, SO LLWS WILL
BE INCLUDED LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 52 58 52 / 60 90 80 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 50 58 51 / 40 90 70 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 49 56 49 / 40 90 80 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 47 56 46 / 20 70 60 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS
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