310
FXUS64 KMRX 261308 AAB
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
908 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 902 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AS THE DAY GOES ON, MAIN
PERIOD OF RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PRONE FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
NIGHT, ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
NORTH OF POLK COUNTY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONGOING SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MANY OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS AREN'T
PICKING UP MUCH SO IT'S NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH. STILL, SIMILAR
RETURNS TO OUR NORTH IN KENTUCKY ARE RESULTING IN SOME TRACE
PRECIP OBSERVATIONS SO IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST
AND ADD IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CONFINED THESE MAINLY TO OUR
VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT TENNESSEE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT RETURNS CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A LACK
OF WET OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS' EVIDENCE OF A
DEEP DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE THAT'S RESULTING IN VIRGA. WILL TAKE
A LITTLE BIT LONGER OF CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION TO RESULT IN SATURATION AND THEREFORE RAIN. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY GOES ON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE AVAILABLE, STRATIFORM RAIN FALLING ONTO DRY GROUNDS WILL
BE VERY BENEFICIAL AND NOT CONCERNED FOR ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES.
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OF RAIN ARE MAINLY CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TN AND SOUTHWESTERN NC, BUT 30% CHANCE OF >1" STILL
REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS KINGSPORT.
AS FAR AS THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS, STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
WE'LL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE BULK OF THE FOOTHILL ZONES
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED GUSTS. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 40+ MPH ARE
GREATEST ON THE WESTERN SLOPES IN POLK COUNTY, AND SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE NORTH OF POLK. THIS LINES UP WITH MODEL INTERPRETATIONS OF
THE H85 WIND FIELD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING NORTHEAST OF POLK AS THE
DECAYING UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
TUESDAY IS THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE WEEK AND THE WEATHER SETUP, AS
OUR FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS AND THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMES
SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY WITH MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STILL PRESENT, ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE GOOD DYNAMICS FOR
WEDNESDAY, THE TRUE SURFACE FRONTS WILL BE FAR TO OUR SOUTH, AND SO
IT'S NO SURPRISE THE NBM HAS HARDLY ANY CAPE FOR THEN. STRONG
DIVERGENCE WILL LEND ITSELF TO ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS 30-50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HALLOWEEN AND ESPECIALLY HALLOWEEN NIGHT ONLY CARRY VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL, AS THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER FRIDAY THERE'S ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS
TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM IT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY, OTHERWISE VFR AND
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT, RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH, REACHING KTRI NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MAY BRING LLWS AT KCHA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AREA WIDE, WITH KCHA ENTERING MVFR BY OR AFTER 00Z,
WITH IFR VIS OR CIGS POSSIBLE THERE BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW. WEAK
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT MAY KEEP KTYS AND KTRI ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 51 58 52 / 60 90 90 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 50 57 50 / 40 90 90 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 48 55 49 / 50 90 90 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 48 56 46 / 20 80 70 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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